The thickest, oldest sea ice in the Arctic has all but vanished, contributing to an anticipated loss of almost all sea ice in summer by as early as mid-century. If this trend in the loss of old, thick ice slowed or reversed — possibly through human intervention — some have hypothesized that the complete loss of Arctic summer sea ice may be forestalled.

In this project, we will examine whether modest potential interventions that mimic natural processes in the Nares Strait region, a narrow ice export pathway between Greenland and Northern Canada, could help increase the persistence of Arctic sea ice or whether the idea lacks merit. To do so, we will combine high-resolution ice and ocean modelling with a satellite analysis to better understand what conditions drive increased or decreased export through Nares Strait. We will examine whether interventions to reduce the loss of ice may be effective, and to what extent these efforts may impact ice and ocean conditions in the local environment. If results and engagement discussions suggest more research is warranted on this approach, our work has the potential to provide guidance on future studies focused on impacts to ecological and socioeconomic systems.