Arctic sea ice is disappearing rapidly, and even strong cuts in greenhouse gas emissions may not be enough to prevent the Arctic Ocean from becoming largely ice-free in summer within a few decades. Because Arctic sea ice plays a critical role in reflecting sunlight and regulating global climate, its loss has consequences far beyond the Arctic itself. This has prompted careful scientific interest in targeted interventions that could help slow the loss of sea ice while emissions cuts continue.

This project will evaluate the potential of mixed-phase cloud thinning, a proposed approach that could slow sea ice loss by thinning certain low-level Arctic clouds. During winter months, these clouds trap heat near the surface, accelerating ice melt. Thinning these clouds could thus allow more heat to escape to space, potentially cooling the surface and helping to preserve sea ice.

The research will combine satellite observations with climate model simulations. Satellite data will be used to estimate how much cooling could realistically be achieved by thinning these clouds across different Arctic regions and seasons. Climate model simulations will then assess how Arctic sea ice responds to a given amount of cooling applied in specific locations and times of year.

By integrating these observational and modeling results, the project will bound how much Arctic sea ice preservation could be achieved through mixed-phase cloud thinning. The results will inform whether this approach merits further investigation or whether its potential impact is too limited to justify additional research.