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Project: Bounding the Potential of Mixed-Phase Cloud Thinning to Slow Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Arctic sea ice is disappearing rapidly, and even strong cuts in greenhouse gas emissions may not be enough to prevent the Arctic Ocean from becoming largely ice-free in summer within a few decades. Because Arctic sea ice plays a critical role in reflecting sunlight and regulating global climate, its loss has consequences far beyond the Arctic itself. This has prompted careful scientific interest in targeted interventions that could help slow the loss of sea ice while emissions cuts continue.

This project will evaluate the potential of mixed-phase cloud thinning, a proposed approach that could slow sea ice loss by thinning certain low-level Arctic clouds. During winter months, these clouds trap heat near the surface, accelerating ice melt. Thinning these clouds could thus allow more heat to escape to space, potentially cooling the surface and helping to preserve sea ice.

The research will combine satellite observations with climate model simulations. Satellite data will be used to estimate how much cooling could realistically be achieved by thinning these clouds across different Arctic regions and seasons. Climate model simulations will then assess how Arctic sea ice responds to a given amount of cooling applied in specific locations and times of year.

By integrating these observational and modeling results, the project will bound how much Arctic sea ice preservation could be achieved through mixed-phase cloud thinning. The results will inform whether this approach merits further investigation or whether its potential impact is too limited to justify additional research.

Team Members

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Jasper Kok

Lead Project Investigator

Professor at the University of California, Los Angeles

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Ian Eisenman

Professor at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego

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Lauren Zamora

Associate Research Scientist at the Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center at the University of Maryland, College Park

Artic Sea Ice Restoration Research Fund

Ocean Visions’ Arctic Sea Ice Restoration Research Fund supports high-priority, transparent research on the most promising and under-examined strategies to protect and restore Arctic sea ice. The Fund directs resources to first-order priorities identified in the Arctic Sea Ice Road Maps, enabling responsible progress where little activity currently exists. By pooling contributions from multiple donors, the Fund will be ever more capable of supporting research at the scale this challenge requires.

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Jasper Kok

Jasper Kok is a professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), where he leads the Aerosol–Climate Interactions research group. His research focuses on quantifying how atmospheric aerosols—particularly desert dust—interact with radiation, clouds, and the climate system, using a combination of theory, satellite observations, field measurements, and climate modeling.

Kok is widely recognized for advancing understanding of the emission and climate impacts of desert dust. More recently, his work has expanded to critically evaluating aerosol- and cloud-based climate intervention concepts, with an emphasis on physical plausibility, uncertainty quantification, and decision-relevant bounds. This includes work on mixed-phase cloud processes relevant to Arctic climate and sea ice loss.

Kok received his PhD in Applied Physics from the University of Michigan in 2009, followed by postdoctoral fellowships at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and Cornell University. He joined UCLA in 2013, received tenure in 2017, and was promoted to full professor in 2021. He is the recipient of an National Science Foundation (NSF) CAREER Award and the 2019 American Meteorological Society Henry Houghton Early Career Award. He is committed to transparent, reproducible science that bridges fundamental climate physics with societally relevant questions.

Ian Eisenman

Ian Eisenman is a professor of climate, atmospheric sciences, and physical oceanography at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego. He received a bachelor’s degree in philosophy and physics from Williams College, a master’s degree in physics from University of California Santa Barbara, a master’s degree in applied mathematics from Harvard University, and a Ph.D. in earth and planetary sciences from Harvard University, followed by a postdoctoral appointment jointly at the California Institute of Technology and University of Washington. His research focuses on ocean and climate dynamics, including sea ice, climate feedbacks, large-scale circulations of the ocean and atmosphere, icebergs, and paleoclimate.

Lauren Zamora

Lauren Zamora is an Associate Research Scientist at the Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park and has been a cooperative agreement scientist affiliated through the University of Maryland with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center since 2017. She earned her PhD in 2010 from the University of Miami. Her current work combines satellite observations, fieldwork, and modeling to investigate how aerosols affect cloud formation in polar regions. Dr. Zamora is on the leadership team for the NASA Arctic Radiation-Cloud-Aerosol-Surface Interaction EXperiment (ARCSIX) aircraft campaign and co-leads the QuIESCENT international scientific group, which coordinates global research efforts to quantify Arctic aerosol-cloud interactions.